This figure is 0.1 per centage points above the 4.6 per cent flash estimate which the statistical office released earlier this month. Polish GDP grew by 4.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year and grew by 5.1 per cent in 2018 as a whole according to GUS.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) earlier this month upgraded its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth to 4.2 per cent, from a previous projection of 4 per cent.
The European Commission also raised its forecasts in May, announcing that it expected the Polish economy to expand by 4.2 per cent in 2019 as a whole, rather than by the 3.5 per cent it had predicted in February. It also raised its 2020 GDP growth forecast for Poland to 3.6 per cent from 3.2 per cent.
If the latest forecasts prove accurate, Poland will be the second fastest-growing economy in the EU this year, outpaced only by Malta, the state news agency PAP reported. “Private consumption is set to remain the key growth driver in 2019 and 2020 supported by a robust increase in wages,” the Commission said in its Spring 2019 Economic Forecast. It added: “An increase in social transfers will act as additional stimulus until around mid-2020.”
The report also noted that the growth in Polish GDP of 5.1 per cent in 2018 was the fastest in more than a decade. Indeed, Poland achieved the third fastest growth in the European Union in 2018, with only Ireland and Malta performing better out of the 28 member states, according to the European Commission’s report in February.
This continued good news for the economy is yet another reason why the governing Law and Justice party, fresh from success in last week’s elections to the European parliament, may look forward to the Polish parliamentary elections this autumn with confidence.
Author: Nicholas Richardson